“The U.S. is caught between a rock and a hard place,” observed Annalisa L. Weigel, a professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  “We would like to have our own independent access [to the ISS] but it seems that [Congress’] pocketbook is not willing to open for that, so we have to look for the next best alternative.”  The next best alternative is relying on the Russians until the shuttle replacement—the crew exploration vehicle—is ready, which is not expected until 2015 at the earliest, she said.

How did the Russians turn around a space program on the verge of collapse and challenge the U.S. for space dominance?  Through a combination of strategic decisions about where to focus public funds and a private funding effort that would make any capitalist proud.

“The Russians made the transition from a state-funded space program in the 1980s to a commercially funded program in the late 1990s.  Russia has over half the commercial launch market,” noted space writer Brian Harvey.  Harvey, who has written four books on Soviet and Russian space exploration, said that close to half of the Russian space program activities are funded by commercial launch contracts.  In addition, the Russians have been accepting space tourists who pay good money, currently between $20 million and $30 million, to travel into space. “If you want to look at a buccaneering, successful, capitalist, entrepreneurial space program, Russia would be my prime case study,” Harvey said.

On the public funding side, the Russian government has undertaken an ambitious 10-year, $9 billion federal space program, which was approved by the Russian parliament in October 2005.  The program proclaims that the Russian space program will focus on “space exploration and research, including exploration and research of the Moon and other space objects.”

But it’s not just the money.  “The real tribute to the Russian space program and the individuals who work in it is that they had the resiliency and stamina to keep going despite very adverse conditions,” said John Tylko, vice president of business development at Aurora Flight Sciences.  “Having less resources financially, their engineers and scientists are extremely dedicated and have worked very hard to keep the Russian program viable.”

Space Shuttle Requiem 

An immediate priority for the Russian manned space exploration and research effort is the ISS.  Because the United States plans to shut down the Space Shuttle missions next year, the Russians will become the dominant country in resupplying and maintaining the space station, Harvey said.  The Russians are planning to double the number of manned missions they fly to the ISS beginning this year to pick up the slack from the shuttle’s cancellation and the doubling of the ISS crew from three to six. Over the next two years, the Russians will launch eight manned missions to the ISS aboard their Soyuz spacecraft from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The Russians also are sending five unmanned Progress freighters up to the ISS this year with supplies such as water, food, fuel, clothes, and scientific equipment. And they will be picking up the resupply pace in 2010 as the Space Shuttle flies its final mission. In addition, the Russians will add more modules to finish construction of the ISS by 2015.

Russia is also planning an upgrade to the Soyuz spacecraft called the Russian Advanced Crew Vehicle (ACV). According to Roscosmos head Anatoly Perminov, the Russian government plans to hold a tender to choose a prime contractor for the ACV this year. Perminov said his agency invited technical experts last year to carry out integrated analysis of the possible options for the ACV, which will include low-earth orbit and low-lunar orbit missions. The Russians had been working with the European Space Agency on an ACV-type vehicle, but the ESA decided in December to develop an unmanned cargo vehicle instead, Perminov said. As a result of this decision, the Russian government is moving ahead with its own ACV.

To the Moon and Beyond

Another indication that the Russians are getting serious about manned missions to the Moon and Mars was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision in 2007 to build a new space port in southeastern Russia called Vostochny. The space port is intended to reduce Russian dependence on the Baikonur Cosmodrome, which Russia currently leases from Kazakhstan for all launches of crews and cargo to the ISS and most of its launches of geostationary-orbiting satellites. “The Russians do not want to be dependent on the goodwill of the Kazakhs,” Harvey observed.

Roscosmos signed off on the Vostochny project in July last year.  Perminov said that the site will be used to launch a new family of vehicles – a multi-use space rocket system and a super heavy launch vehicle for future space exploration.  Perminov noted that the Vostochny will “lay the basis for ambitious space projects, such as human missions to the Moon and Mars.”  Russian companies have already completed the system design stage for the space port, and the agency expects to finish construction in 2015 for unmanned flights and 2018 for manned flights.

In preparation for a manned mission to Mars, the Moscow-based Russian Institute of Bio-medical Problems kicked off a 105-day Mars mission simulation called Mars 500 in March.  Four Russians—cosmonauts Oleg Artemyev, Sergei Ryazansky, and Alexei Baranov, and sports physiologist Alexei Shpakov—and two members of the European Space Agency—France’s Cyrille Fournier, a civilian pilot, and Germany’s Oliver Knickel, a mechanical engineer—are taking part in the experiment. Following the 105-day simulation, a much longer 520-day simulation is set to begin later this year. The 520-day experiment is designed to simulate all aspects of a journey to Mars, including the 250-day one-way trip, a 30-day stay on the surface, and the 240-day return flight.

Is a manned mission to Mars feasible? Some scientists think that the amount of radiation a crew traveling to Mars would be exposed to would make such a trip hazardous. But others argue that the risks of a manned flight to Mars are exaggerated.  “The danger of radiation is overdrawn,” said Robert Zubrin, president of the U.S.-based Mars Society. “The total radiation you get on a roundtrip mission to Mars is about 50 REMs over a two and a half year period. That would have no immediate medical effects…This is hardly a show stopper.”

So the road to the moon and Mars appears open for the revivified Russian space program, if they can muster the political will and the money. But first the Russians need to focus closer to home, particularly since they will be the primary way for astronauts and supplies to get to the ISS in the near future (for cargo delivery to the ISS carried our by private sector companies, refer to SpaceX and Orbital Sciences articles).  From the brink of extinction, the Russia space program is now challenging the United States for dominance not only in low-earth orbit but also to the Moon and Mars in the new millennium.