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If the Earth is Rare, We May Not Hear from ET
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Earth - Moon System

Image Credit: NASA


If civilization-forming intelligent life is rare in our Milky Way galaxy, chances are we won't hear from ET before the Sun goes red giant, in about five billion years' time; however, if we do hear from ET before then, we'll have lots of nice chats before the Earth is sterilized.

That's the conclusion from a recent study of Ward and Brownlee's Rare Earth hypothesis by Duncan Forgan and Ken Rice, in which they made a toy galaxy, simulating the real one we live in, and ran it 30 times. In their toy galaxy, intelligent life formed on Earth-like planets only, just as it does in the Rare Earth hypothesis.

While the Forgan and Rice simulations are still limited and somewhat unrealistic, they give a better handle on SETI's chances for success than either the Drake equation or Fermi's "Where are they?"
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Read the rest of If the Earth is Rare, We May Not Hear from ET (555 words)

© Jean Tate for Universe Today, 2010. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us
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